It has been more than a decade since Yao Ming retired from the NBA and basketball altogether. It appeared that many Chinese basketball players would follow after Yao Ming's retirement. But it didn't. Yi Jianlian followed Yao Ming in 2007, five years after Yao's first season in 2002.
Yi Jianlian
Yi Jianlian's career was memorable because he was dubbed to be the "Next Yao Ming" in any way, shape, or form; however, he never lived up to the hype. His best career year was in the 2009-2010 season, in which he averaged 12 points a game and 7.2 rebounds a game. He appeared to be adapting to the NBA. After the 2009-2010 season, his career just spiraled downward, dropping to 5.6 ppg and 3.9 rbs. Then, his performance declined further to 2.6 ppg and 1.6 rbs. The 2011-12 season was his last in the league. To conclude, Yi Jianlian was not the next Yao Ming.
Then there was Fanbo Zeng. Actually, just recently. In 2022, he participated in the G-League and garnered attention for his agility, athleticism, and ball-swatting skills. People hailed him as the next Yao Ming. So far, nothing is indicating he will be anywhere near NBA-ready. While there's still hope he will play in the NBA, his chances are slim at this moment.
Fanbo Zeng
Zeng, in my opinion, should have gone to college in the United States. He had committed to playing college basketball for Gonzaga University and was a consensus four-star recruit. Instead of attending college to join Gonzaga, he played in the G-League. If he had attended college in the United States, he would have acquired skills that would have helped him in his journey to the NBA. Under the tutelage of Gonzaga coaches, he would have gained knowledge that would have made him more attractive to NBA scouts. He would have significantly enhanced his strength and conditioning. His ball-shooting ability would have improved as well. He missed the chance to refine his skills, and now, at 21, his prospects are becoming less appealing.
Gonzaga ranks as the fifth-best college program for developing NBA talent. Zeng would have been part of that program. If he had entered the Gonzaga program, he would have been only 17 years old. Four years later, we simply don't know how good he could have become. Even now, we remain uncertain about his potential. He currently plays for the CBA, the Chinese Basketball Association.
Yang Hansen
Finally, Yang Hansen, a 7'2 center who is 19 years old, has emerged as the most promising prospect in China in a long time. He moves, changes directions with ease, has decent speed and can play low post and beyond the 3-point line. He's a big kid who can play big and also be a finesse-type player. He's versatile and is capable of putting up dominating performances. He is a legitimate NBA prospect who needs to develop his strength and speed. He plays best in the low post, where he is crafty and light-footed, enabling him to score rather freely. He has great passing skills and can shoot beyond the 3-point arc. He resembles a player more akin to Nikola Jokic. He doesn't have the greatest athleticism, but he can do everything else pretty well. Yang excels as a passer, a proficient shooter both inside and beyond the 3-point line, possesses a strong post presence and demonstrates creativity, and his height is impressive enough to attract the attention of scouts.
Yao Ming Tries To Answer The Lack of NBA Talent In China
In 2024, someone asked Yao Ming who he believed could be the next Yao Ming. He carefully tried to access the question in the most coherent, most polite way possible.
"Sometimes I feel that people should not expect another Yao Ming because I enjoyed many unique conditions when I was young," Yao says. "Not all kids have such an environment. I grew up in a sports family. My parents were professional athletes. They discovered me at a young age, initiated my training early, and provided me with preferential resources. To some extent, this is not replicable."
I agree with some of Yao's points, but they extend beyond that. Basketball in China was structured at the governmental level just like in many sports. It wasn't until 1996 that the Chinese University Basketball Association was established, which is a private institution. It launched in 1998 in hopes of emulating the NCAA model.
The problem with this model is that it isn't competitive at all. Three teams practically dominate it: Huaquiao University, Peking University, and Taiyuan University of Technology. The absence of competition essentially means that the development of these schools is unlikely to progress significantly, as they will constantly face competition from inferior teams. There's no challenge factory. In this aspect, replicating a model like the NCAA is failing in every way. There has to be a start somewhere, and it appears to be a good idea at the time. In layman's terms, the likelihood of a Yao Ming emerging from the CUBA model is relatively low. You can't test prospects on how well they will do based on poor competition.
Even with this ineffective method of honing talent, I am confident that basketball, through this NCAA replica model, will eventually strengthen its talent pool. It's just going to be a slow process. Before implementing this, Chinese NBA prospects played almost exclusively in the CBA, the professional league in China. They didn't come from the collegiate level of play. Once the college level becomes more competitive, it will improve the talent pool and thus hone any NBA hopeful player's skills.
How long will it take for the CUBA model to be competitive? It depends on how well the organization is handled and how well they recruit players. Strong recruits equal stronger players, and stronger players equal better competition. This will take about one more generation, just around 20 years if they do things right.
There will be "The Next Yao Ming." It is just a matter of time. Perhaps it could be as early as Yang Hansen.